Markets

Economic forecasting: Connecting the data dots for investors

July 6, 2021 - 3 minutes 30 seconds

A man stands in front of multiple city skyscrapers while holding a cellphone to his ear.

Chief U.S. Macro Strategist Jim O'Sullivan and Chief Emerging Asia and Europe Strategist Mitul Kotecha leveraged their comprehensive knowledge of market growth and inflation to earn Top Tier rankings as #1 Forecasters in their respective areas earlier this year by Bloomberg's Forecast Survey.

"Forecasting has been an incredibly complex task through the pandemic," says Richard Kelly, Head of Global Strategy, TD Securities. "So, when we have Jim and Mitul helping investors start their process with the most accurate forecasts for U.S. and China, we are giving our clients the best possible starting space for every other decision that has to follow in their investment process."

A trusted face in U.S. economics

For Jim O'Sullivan, this marks another achievement in a long, storied career packed with recognition for accurately reading the U.S. economy. He has an uncanny ability to interpret the smaller secondary market data as well as the main releases and stitch them all together to form a single, cohesive interpretation of how the data on a given day may affect expectations and ultimately drive shifts in the market.

According to MarketWatch, a news outlet owned by the Dow Jones & Company, Jim is "the best high-frequency economic forecaster in America." He was named MarketWatch Forecaster of the Year in 12 of the 16 years since the award was created, including the last nine. Rankings are based on accuracy in projecting U.S. economic indicators. Jim also garnered attention as the recipient of the Most Accurate Forecaster Award for U.S. economic indicators from Reuters for five out of the six years since the award was created (from Reuters in 2014 and Refinitiv Starmine based on Reuters polls in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019).

In short, there hasn't been another forecaster of the U.S. economy in the last decade more accurate than Jim.

TD Securities clients can read more of Jim's research by logging into our research portal

A top forecaster for the Chinese economy

Mitul was recognized by Bloomberg's Forecast Survey as the #1 Forecaster for the Chinese economy through the first half of 2021. As an emerging markets economist and strategist, Mitul captures data on market drivers, central banks, different regulatory authorities and other types of biases that may affect the market, and provides clients with insights on how to incorporate these factors into their trades, portfolios, and broader investment strategy.

Focusing on the Asia-Pacific region, Mitul pulls together a broad swath of market data – from India to China to Thailand – and ties it all into an interconnected web of data for clients. His defining attribute is distilling a lot of the noise that comes out of these multiple markets. Mitul looks at the individual drivers of each market and provides investors with an informed idea of which areas are in a better position to struggle and which are in a better position to succeed.

TD Securities clients can read Mitul's latest piece on China's economy by logging into our research portal

Guiding clients through periods of unprecedented risk

In addition to recognizing the individual success of Jim and Mitul, our entire Global Strategy team worked tremendously hard to support our clients over a period plagued with unprecedented uncertainty and risk. Investors continuously received accurate market forecasts and assessments of risk that supported strategically positioning their investments within the fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities markets.

The results of these efforts – including keeping our clients up to date in a virtual setting through virtual coffee break chats, roundtables and one-on-one sessions - culminated in our recognition in other key market categories in the first half of 2021 as decided by Bloomberg's Forecast Survey, including:

Top 2 Forecaster across U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services, Core and Headline CPI, Core and Headline Retail Sales
Top 2 Forecaster for Canadian monthly GDP
Top 2 Forecaster for Australia CPI (trimmed mean)
#2 Forecaster for Bank Indonesia
Top FX Forecaster for the Turkish Lira in Q1 and Q2
Top 3 Forecaster for the Brazilian Real, Russian Ruble and Australian Dollar in Q1
Top 3 Forecaster of the Polish Zloty, Indonesian Rupiah, and British Pound in Q2

These honours reinforce our commitment to delivering non-stop service and value to our clients. As more countries are set to reopen their economies over the next few months, we will continue to interpret data, policy responses, economic shifts and trends and support our clients through getting ahead of market changes and providing a longer-term view for their investments.

Richard Kelly
Head of Global Strategy, TD Securities

Biography

Richard oversees the Global Strategy team, providing investment and strategic advice on G10 FX, rates, commodities, and emerging markets, as well as top-down global macro analysis, assessing the common trends in major economies and implications for markets. Prior to joining TD Securities in 2010, he was the Senior International Economist for TD Economics. Before that, he worked at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., and several other economic development organizations.

Jim O’Sullivan
Director and Chief U.S. Macro Strategist, TD Securities

Biography

Jim forecasts and analyzes U.S. macroeconomic developments and policy actions driving financial markets. He has authored different publications on analyzing market data for different financial institutions. MarketWatch and Refinitiv Starmine repeatedly recognize Jim as a Top Forecaster for the U.S. economy.

Mitul Kotecha
Director and Chief Emerging Asia & Europe Strategist, TD Securities

Biography

Mitul carries over 26 years of experience as a strategist and economist across offices in London, Hong Kong, and Singapore. His focus is global emerging markets and Asia macro strategy, and his product coverage includes bonds, interest rates, equities and foreign exchange. Mitul is a frequent speaker at various global economic and financial conferences, has given a TEDX talk and is regularly consulted by media for views on markets and economies.

Markets

Economic forecasting: Connecting the data dots for investors

A trusted face in U.S. economics

A top forecaster for the Chinese economy

Guiding clients through periods of unprecedented risk

Biography

Biography

Biography

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