GLP-1 Market: The Pipeline Expands

Overview:

• Global sales of GLP-1, a medication used to manage blood sugar levels for those with Type 2 diabetes, is projected to reach US$139 billion by 2030, up 2.6x from sales posted in 2024.
• Obesity could contribute sales of US$58 billion, up from our US$41 billion forecast a little over a year ago.
• Questions around peak potential have emerged, but concerns may be overstated. Achieving our estimate requires uptake in only 8% of diabetes and 2% of obesity patients worldwide.
• Proprietary surveys indicate enthusiasm for weight loss drugs among consumers and in the primary care setting, especially if access improves. Positive health outcomes should drive favorable coverage.

The TD Cowen Insight

Global GLP-1 sales in 2030 could reach US$139 billion, up from our US$101 billion forecast a little over a year ago. The market is maturing but accruing health outcomes data should broaden access and maintain momentum. Our proprietary surveys point to persistent enthusiasm among consumers and primary care providers.

GLP-1 Market is One to Monitor

Focus appears to have shifted away from the GLP-1 market's outsized potential and toward the challenges that greet a successful drug class as it matures. Lofty expectations add risk. Bracketing the size of a therapeutic category that could address one-fifth of the world's adult population is no small task, but therein lies opportunity.

Our updated model projects US$139 billion in global sales in 2030 across both diabetes (59% of sales) and obesity (41% of sales), based on uptake in approximately eight percent and two percent of each category, respectively. This implies a 21% CAGR from 2023-2030. Continued use and rapid adoption of the most popular GLP-1s, and a rich pipeline suggest this estimate is achievable. Still, investors have grown skittish, and key metrics bear watching.

Emerging controversies boil down to the outlook for prescriptions, payors, price and pipeline. Either early signs are surfacing that GLP-1 trends are beginning to stall, or these products are simply going through the normal course of business with peak potential intact. We lean toward the latter interpretation which is generally supported by our latest surveys of primary care providers, payors, employers and consumers. The top two companies in the space are expected to remain the main drivers and beneficiaries of market growth. But there are clinical and commercial lanes open to competition, and no dearth of market hopefuls vying for a spot as the diabetes and obesity landscape expands.

GLP-1 Consumer and Employer Surveys Provide Key Insights into Market Growth

Meaningful uptake of weight loss drugs in the primary care setting will be critical to achieve peak potential. We conducted a survey of primary care physicians and advanced practice providers – including current GLP-1 prescribers and those who have so far stayed on the sidelines – to gauge appetite. The results point to a wellspring of enthusiasm on the front lines of health care that should drive growth, especially if access improves. Results were generally consistent with those from our companion survey of GLP-1 consumers and employers. This report also contains an exhaustive overview of the GLP-1 and obesity landscape alongside key data.

What To Watch

Over 260 clinical, regulatory, and commercial catalysts are on the horizon. Dynamics surrounding uptake, supply, and reimbursement must also be monitored