Economy

Strategist Coffee Break: The Summer of Waiting

Jul. 14, 2023

Guests: Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy, TD Securities and Oscar Muñoz, Chief US Macro Strategist, TD Securities

Host: Rich Kelly, Global Head of Strategy, TD Securities

This year has seen surprisingly persistent inflation push policy rates toward pre-financial-crisis highs and the first signs of real pain following the string of bank failures in the spring. Despite this uncertainty, the TD Securities Global Strategy team continued to beat consensus with its forecasts and profitably navigate the markets.

Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy, has been instrumental in building out our U.S. rates coverage for over a decade with TD, leading our rates team to be considered as one of the top-rated fixed income teams in the U.S. Oscar Muñoz, Chief US Macro Strategist, retained his title as top-ranked forecaster in Bloomberg for U.S. core CPI throughout the recent volatility and is a top-eight forecaster for a number of other key releases including core PCE inflation. His U.S. CPI Scanner is widely read and highly regarded on the street.

In this special edition Strategist Coffee Break, Rich Kelly, Global Head of Strategy, catches up with Gennadiy and Oscar to review where they made the right call through turbulent U.S. and global markets. They also discuss where they think the economy and rates markets are headed now as the Fed approaches the end of its hiking cycle. Oscar was ahead of the curve early this year on sticky U.S. inflation. He speaks about looking for a quicker deceleration in inflation over the next few months and discusses what's behind that view and how it's going to affect the Fed. Gennadiy and the U.S. rates team anticipated looking for Treasury yields to fall earlier this year, despite being hawkish on inflation. In our discussion, he offers where he thinks rates are headed now given the macro backdrop and which parts of the curve are likely to outperform.

This episode was recorded on July 5, 2023.

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Gennadiy Goldberg
Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, TD Securities

Biography

Gennadiy is Head of U.S. Rates Strategy, providing market commentary on interest rates and the U.S. economy and focusing on Treasuries, swaps, TIPS, and supranational and agency debt. He also focuses on US fiscal dynamics, monetary policy functioning issues, and front-end markets. Gennadiy was ranked top five in the Federal Agency Debt Strategy category in the Institutional Investor’s All-America Fixed Income Research team surveys between 2017 and 2021.

Oscar Muñoz
Chief U.S. Macro Strategist, TD Securities

Biography

Oscar Muñoz is the Chief U.S. Macro Strategist at TD Securities, providing research and analysis on the U.S. economy and financial markets for both internal and external clients. He's consistently been one of the top-ranked forecasters for U.S. CPI in recent years in the Bloomberg polls.

Richard Kelly
Head of Global Strategy, TD Securities

Biography

Richard oversees the Global Strategy team, providing investment and strategic advice on G10 FX, rates, commodities, and emerging markets, as well as top-down global macro analysis, assessing the common trends in major economies and implications for markets. Prior to joining TD Securities in 2010, he was the Senior International Economist for TD Economics. Before that, he worked at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., and several other economic development organizations.