Politics & Policy

The Big List of Washington Policy Risk for 2025

By: Jaret Seiberg

Jan. 22, 2025 - 2 minutes 30 seconds

Overview:

The Big List is our annual preview of Washington policy risk across our coverage universe. Topics discussed include financials, consumer finance, housing, insurance, student lending, markets, crypto, China, cannabis and macro.
We expect policy supervision to ease, but deregulation will take longer and will depend upon Trump's regulatory picks.
Key themes include housing as a political threat, the rise of populism, macro unpredictability and increasing levels of U.S. debt.

The TD Cowen Insight

A new President always means significant changes in our Big List, which is our annual preview of the biggest Washington policy issues for banks, consumer finance, payments, student lending, markets, housing, insurance, crypto, and cannabis. We view the policy environment as tumultuous, as Trump is more populist and pro-tariff than in his first term while more tax cuts are unlikely.

Deregulation and Debt Levels Under New Scrutiny

We believe the election of Donald Trump and the Republican sweep of Congress opens the door to deregulation, though the populist wing of the MAGA coalition and legal hurdles will restrain how much can get done. U.S. debt levels are reaching the point where they will force bank regulators to implement policy changes and where they may start complicating efforts to enact Trump's tax cut package.

Five Key Financials Themes for 2025

Our Big List, which we have published since the Financial Crisis hit 17 years ago, covers in one report all the major Washington challenges for the broader financial sector. We also focus on five themes for the year ahead: deregulation, housing, partisan populism, macro unpredictability and the U.S. debt burden.

Financial & Industry Implications

Banks: Supervision should improve but still expect capital, debt and liquidity rules.

Consumer Finance/Payments: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) efforts to limit fees should end, though antitrust debit card market challenge is expected to continue.

Housing: Political pressure to boost supply exists.

Insurance: High cost of premiums are causing political problems, though Washington is unlikely to act.

Student Lending: No more debt forgiveness.

Markets: Less risk to payment for order flow though watching future of Regulation National Market System.

Crypto: The key is for Congress to enact crypto market structure legislation.

China: There is risk that the U.S. de-lists all Chinese stocks.

Cannabis: We still expect Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to move cannabis to Schedule 3.

Macro: Tariffs, tax reforms and global uncertainty will be the norm for the next four years.

What To Watch

Who Trump picks as regulators
Congress use of the Congressional Review Act to block Biden-era rules
How quickly do regulators propose changes to the Supplemental Leverage Ratio?
Will housing supply incentives be included in the tax package?
Can crypto community remain united enough to push Congress to enact market structure legislation?
Does rescheduling of cannabis provide a path for the industry to tap capital markets?

Subscribing clients can read the full report, Big List 2025 For Financials, Housing & Crypto Policy - Ahead Of Curve + Video, on the TD One Portal

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Jaret Seiberg

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Jaret Seiberg
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Jaret Seiberg is the financial services and housing policy analyst for TD Cowen Washington Research Group, which was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Before joining TD Cowen in August 2016, he served in similar roles at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Concept Capital and Stanford Financial Group. He began following financial policy in the early 1990s as a journalist covering efforts in Congress to complete the last of the laws from the savings and loan crisis. He tracked the merger wave of the 1990s and Glass-Steagall repeal in 1999 as the deputy Washington bureau chief for American Banker and as the Washington bureau chief for The Daily Deal. His bailiwick at TD Cowen includes issues related to commercial banks, housing, payments, investment banking, M&A, taxes, the CFPB, crypto currency, cannabis and Capitol Hill.

Mr. Seiberg has a BA from The American University and an MBA from the University of Maryland at College Park. He speaks regularly at industry events, is often quoted in the media, and appears on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.