Politique et politiques

The Big List of Washington Policy Risk for 2025

By: Jaret Seiberg

janv. 22, 2025 - 2 minutes 30 seconds

Overview:

The Big List is our annual preview of Washington policy risk across our coverage universe. Topics discussed include financials, consumer finance, housing, insurance, student lending, markets, crypto, China, cannabis and macro.
We expect policy supervision to ease, but deregulation will take longer and will depend upon Trump's regulatory picks.
Key themes include housing as a political threat, the rise of populism, macro unpredictability and increasing levels of U.S. debt.

The TD Cowen Insight

A new President always means significant changes in our Big List, which is our annual preview of the biggest Washington policy issues for banks, consumer finance, payments, student lending, markets, housing, insurance, crypto, and cannabis. We view the policy environment as tumultuous, as Trump is more populist and pro-tariff than in his first term while more tax cuts are unlikely.

Deregulation and Debt Levels Under New Scrutiny

We believe the election of Donald Trump and the Republican sweep of Congress opens the door to deregulation, though the populist wing of the MAGA coalition and legal hurdles will restrain how much can get done. U.S. debt levels are reaching the point where they will force bank regulators to implement policy changes and where they may start complicating efforts to enact Trump's tax cut package.

Five Key Financials Themes for 2025

Our Big List, which we have published since the Financial Crisis hit 17 years ago, covers in one report all the major Washington challenges for the broader financial sector. We also focus on five themes for the year ahead: deregulation, housing, partisan populism, macro unpredictability and the U.S. debt burden.

Financial & Industry Implications

Banks: Supervision should improve but still expect capital, debt and liquidity rules.

Consumer Finance/Payments: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) efforts to limit fees should end, though antitrust debit card market challenge is expected to continue.

Housing: Political pressure to boost supply exists.

Insurance: High cost of premiums are causing political problems, though Washington is unlikely to act.

Student Lending: No more debt forgiveness.

Markets: Less risk to payment for order flow though watching future of Regulation National Market System.

Crypto: The key is for Congress to enact crypto market structure legislation.

China: There is risk that the U.S. de-lists all Chinese stocks.

Cannabis: We still expect Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to move cannabis to Schedule 3.

Macro: Tariffs, tax reforms and global uncertainty will be the norm for the next four years.

What To Watch

Who Trump picks as regulators
Congress use of the Congressional Review Act to block Biden-era rules
How quickly do regulators propose changes to the Supplemental Leverage Ratio?
Will housing supply incentives be included in the tax package?
Can crypto community remain united enough to push Congress to enact market structure legislation?
Does rescheduling of cannabis provide a path for the industry to tap capital markets?

Subscribing clients can read the full report, Big List 2025 For Financials, Housing & Crypto Policy - Ahead Of Curve + Video, on the TD One Portal

Disclaimer

The views or opinions expressed herein represent the personal views of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of TD Securities or its affiliates.

This material is intended to provide commentary on the market for commodities discussed herein.

Not Advice: The information contained in this material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation, or to create a fiduciary relationship. Neither TD Securities (USA) LLC (“TD Securities USA”) nor any of its affiliates (collectively, “TD”) makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, appropriateness or sufficiency for any purpose of any information included in this material. Certain information may have been provided by third-party sources and, while believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by TD, and its accuracy or completeness acannot be guaranteed. You should not make an investment decision in reliance on this material, which is intended to provide only brief comments on the topics addressed, and is based on information that is likely to change without notice.

Not Securities or Derivatives Research: This material has not been produced, reviewed or approved by TD’s securities or derivatives research departments. The views of the author may differ from others at TD, including TD securities or derivatives research analysts.

Not Independent: The views expressed in this material may not be independent of the interests of TD. TD may engage in conflicting activities, including principal trading before or after posting this material, or other services involving commodities discussed in this material, or related financial products. TD may have a financial interest in the commodities discussed in this material, including, without limitation, a financial product that references such commodities.

Not An Offer or Solicitation: Nothing contained in this material is, or should be construed as, an offer, a solicitation of an offer or an invitation to buy or sell any commodity, or any financial product that references such commodity, and it is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to law.

Risk of Loss. Transactions in commodities, and financial instruments that reference commodities, involve risk of loss, and are subject to the risks of fluctuating prices. You should weigh potential benefits against the risks. Past performance is no indicator of future performance and the Materials are not intended to forecast or predict future events.

Jaret Seiberg

Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – analyste, Services financiers et Politiques, TD Cowen

Jaret Seiberg
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – analyste, Services financiers et Politiques, TD Cowen

Biographie

Jaret Seiberg est un analyste des services financiers et de la politique du logement pour le Groupe de recherche de Washington de TD Cowen, qui a récemment été nommé premier dans la catégorie Institutional Investor Washington Strategy. Le Groupe a toujours été classé parmi les meilleures équipes de macro-politique au cours de la dernière décennie. Avant de se joindre à TD Cowen en août 2016, il a occupé des postes similaires au sein de Guggenheim Securities, de MF Global, de Concept Capital et de Stanford Financial Group. Il a commencé à suivre la politique financière au début des années 1990 en tant que journaliste couvrant les efforts du Congrès pour finaliser les dernières lois résultant de la crise de l’épargne et du crédit. Il a suivi la vague de fusions des années 1990 et l’abrogation de la loi Glass-Steagall en 1999 à titre de chef adjoint du bureau de Washington pour American Banker et chef du bureau de Washington pour The Daily Deal. Son domaine d’expertise à TD Cowen comprend les questions liées aux banques commerciales, au logement, aux paiements, aux services bancaires d’investissement, aux fusions et acquisitions, aux impôts, au Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, à la cryptomonnaie, au cannabis et à Capitol Hill.

M. Seiberg est titulaire d’un baccalauréat de l’American University et d’une maîtrise en administration des affaires de l’Université du Maryland à College Park. Il prend régulièrement la parole dans le cadre d’événements du secteur, est souvent cité dans les médias et fait des apparitions à CNBC et à Bloomberg TV.

Les documents préparés par le Groupe de recherche de Washington de TD Cowen sont des commentaires sur les conditions politiques, économiques ou de marché et ne sont pas des rapports de recherche au sens de la réglementation applicable.