Markets

Global Strategy Outlook 2022: The year of living dangerously

December 15, 2021 - 1 minute
Close-up of a professional standing between tall corporate buildings.
We still think it is a question of when -- not if -- the markets' fears on sustained high inflation start to reverse.

If, in this period of peak disruptions to supply chains and pressure on energy and food markets, this is close to the highest we can muster on inflation, it seems a low risk for us to see sustained price pressures.

As our macro team delves into the inflation uncertainty risks, almost 2.5pp of the 4% y/y inflation in the Eurozone right now is energy and base effects from German tax cuts and around three-quarters of the upside in headline inflation in the U.S. is from disruptions in energy and motor vehicles.

This too shall pass.

Gain deeper insights from our Rates, FX and Commodities strategists by listening to their quick views from our Global Strategy Outlook1 report.
Headshot of Richard Kelly


Head of Global Strategy, TD Securities

Headshot of Richard Kelly


Head of Global Strategy, TD Securities

Headshot of Richard Kelly


Head of Global Strategy, TD Securities

Richard oversees the Global Strategy team, providing investment and strategic advice on G10 FX, rates, commodities, and emerging markets, as well as top-down global macro analysis, assessing the common trends in major economies and implications for markets. Prior to joining TD Securities in 2010, he was the Senior International Economist for TD Economics. Before that, he worked at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., and several other economic development organizations.


December 14, 2021

Global Rates Quick View

2021 was a year of twists and turns. From a U.S. fiscal stimulus led rise in rates in the first quarter; a global decline in rates in the second and third quarters due to the surge of the Delta variant, to a fairly global higher rate move in the fourth quarter, inflation readings came in higher and more persistent. We think 2022 will be a function of the unwinding of central bank accommodation. Find out more.

Headshot of Priya Misra


Global Head of Rates Strategy, TD Securities

Headshot of Priya Misra


Global Head of Rates Strategy, TD Securities

Headshot of Priya Misra


Global Head of Rates Strategy, TD Securities

Priya is responsible for the macro calls on the U.S. and global interest rate markets and provides investment advice to clients. She represents TD at the Fed's Alternative Reference Rate Committee (ARRC) and is actively involved in the transition from LIBOR to SOFR. She publishes regular research on interest rates, discussing secular trends as well as trade ideas and manages a model portfolio of recommendations.

December 14, 2021

FX Quick View

For the broader FX market in general, we think that investors should expect a diverse set of drivers ranging from divergences across growth, central banks, terms of trade, and valuations. We called these guys the growers, the hikers, the miners, and the discounters. Find out more.

Headshot of Mark McCormick


Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities

Headshot of Mark McCormick


Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities

Headshot of Mark McCormick


Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities

Mark helps manage the firm's research efforts for major foreign exchange markets, along with developing the analytical framework used for market analysis, forecasts and trade ideas across different asset classes. His experience in financial markets has led to deep knowledge of global markets and international affairs, which combines the use of econometrics, policy insight and fundamental/technical analysis.

December 14, 2021

Commodities Quick View

We discuss how the changing global consumption patterns, economic growth moderation, and supply trends normalization will knock commodity prices off their highs in 2022. We also address how ongoing energy problems in Asia and Europe over the winter OPEC+ discipline will prevent an outright rout in commodity prices. Find out more.

Headshot of Bark Melek


Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy, TD Securities

Headshot of Bark Melek


Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy, TD Securities

Headshot of Bark Melek


Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy, TD Securities

Bart has over 20 years of experience analyzing global precious metals, base metals, energy, and financial markets, as well as North American and global economies. He has worked closely with commodity, equity and FX trading desks in Toronto, New York, Chicago, London and Singapore, and has several forecasting distinctions and top global rankings to his credit.

Existing clients can read the full report on our Market Alpha Portal