Politics & Policy

The Post Election Outlook for U.S. Climate, Energy & Transport Policy

By: John Miller, Chris Krueger

Apr. 17, 2024 - 2 minutes

The TD Cowen Insight

The 2024 U.S presidential election will be decisive in determining near-term pathways for U.S. climate, energy, and transport policy.

We see concentrated policy risk for electric vehicles, offshore wind, electric transmission (regional and interregional), and green hydrogen under a Republican president.

Conversely, we see ongoing risks to internal combustion engines vehicles, fossil production, and fossil infrastructure under a Democratic president (second Biden administration).

Carbon capture and storage management, electric grids (interconnection and distribution), blue hydrogen, alternative liquid fuels, and trade-protected domestic manufacturing all appear relatively de-risked regardless of election outcome.

Key misconceptions include risk of Individual Right of Action (IRA) repeal (overstated), IRA guidance revision (understated), and clean energy and transport trade disruptions (understated). We stress that election outcomes resulting in divided government limits legislative opportunity but extends threat of IRA repeal risk through 2025 due to congressional catalysts.

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John Miller

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - ESG and Sustainability Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

John Miller
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - ESG and Sustainability Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

John Miller joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in September 2021 and covers ESG and sustainability policy. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Mr. Miller previously served as a vice president and senior ESG research analyst at Calvert Research and Management, part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, where he developed and built a quantitative, company-level ESG risk/reward assessment framework targeted towards the global energy and utility sectors. Mr. Miller supported the index development and security selection process for Calvert’s Global Energy Solutions Fund and Global Water Fund. Mr. Miller also worked at the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) as branch chief in the Office of Enforcement, Division of Analytics and Surveillance. Earlier, he served as Technical and Policy Advisor to a FERC commissioner and as an energy analyst in FERC’s Office of Enforcement.

Mr. Miller holds a B.A. in economic history and political science from The George Washington University, and a Master’s in global history from The London School of Economics and Political Science, where he focused on developmental economics. John also holds the Fundamentals of Sustainability Accounting certification, which is granted by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB).

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Chris Krueger

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Chris Krueger
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Chris Krueger joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 as the Washington Strategist. Mr. Krueger and the TD Cowen Washington Research Group were recently named #2 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category, where he had been consistently ranked for the past decade along with WRG. Mr. Krueger publishes the DC Download, a must-read daily for Wall Street portfolio managers who want a quick look at the top Washington stories and their impact on the capital markets. Mr. Krueger covers DC macro, fiscal, tax and trade policy.

He held similar positions at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Concept Capital, and Potomac Research Group. Earlier he worked for nearly four years on the senior staff of the House of Representatives. He has also worked on several local, state, and federal political campaigns across the country.

Mr. Krueger holds a BA from the University of Vermont and an MA in international relations from King’s College London. He appears frequently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is widely quoted in The Wall Street Journal, FT, Axios, New York Times, Washington Post, and POLITICO. He also speaks regularly at industry events and conferences, including the Milken Institute Global Conference, National Organization of Investment Professionals, and the New York Stock Exchange.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.