Politics & Policy

Washington's Plan for Housing and What It Means for The Sector

By: Jaret Seiberg, Max Rakhlenko, Gregory Williams, Sean Steuart

Apr. 14, 2025 - 2 minutes

A construction worker in the rafters of a house being built.

Overview:

The undersupply of housing could create political pressure for government action to boost the supply, especially for entry-level housing.
Voters identify housing as a priority, so both parties will want to deliver before the 2026 and 2028 elections.
Ideas under consideration vary from tax incentives to zoning changes to construction financing reforms to macro considerations to demand incentives.
Our equity analysts assess what more government support for housing means for public companies.

The TD Cowen Insight

We believe the undersupply of entry-level housing construction since the financial crisis is creating political pressure on Washington to take steps that would encourage more building. Options include tax incentives, reform to zoning, and lending which will impact companies tied to housing as well as those that serve homebuyers and existing owners.

Major Benefits Expected for Political Parties, Housing Companies and Homebuyers

We believe voters expect Washington to provide relief from rising home prices, which is creating a unique opportunity for the government to advance policies that will boost housing supply. Both parties will worry about the consequences in the 2026 and 2028 elections if they fail to deliver.

Public Companies to be Impacted by Focus on Home Construction

We use our extensive policy network in Washington to develop an exhaustive list of policy options that Team Trump and Congress are likely to consider as they seek to boost the supply of entry-level housing. We then combine this with analysis from equity analysts who opine on what an increased focus on home construction could mean for public companies. These include:

Tax Incentives
Zoning Changes
Construction Financing
Macro Considerations
Demand Incentives

What To Watch

Potential vehicles for housing measures include:

The tax package,
The FY 2026 spending package,
The National Defense Authorization Act, and
Another must-pass bill.

Subscribing clients can read the full report, Washington's Plan for Housing & What It Means For the Sector-Ahead of the Curve, on the TD One Portal

Disclaimer

The views or opinions expressed herein represent the personal views of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of TD Securities or its affiliates.

This material is intended to provide commentary on the market for commodities discussed herein.

Not Advice: The information contained in this material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation, or to create a fiduciary relationship. Neither TD Securities (USA) LLC (“TD Securities USA”) nor any of its affiliates (collectively, “TD”) makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, appropriateness or sufficiency for any purpose of any information included in this material. Certain information may have been provided by third-party sources and, while believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by TD, and its accuracy or completeness acannot be guaranteed. You should not make an investment decision in reliance on this material, which is intended to provide only brief comments on the topics addressed, and is based on information that is likely to change without notice.

Not Securities or Derivatives Research: This material has not been produced, reviewed or approved by TD’s securities or derivatives research departments. The views of the author may differ from others at TD, including TD securities or derivatives research analysts.

Not Independent: The views expressed in this material may not be independent of the interests of TD. TD may engage in conflicting activities, including principal trading before or after posting this material, or other services involving commodities discussed in this material, or related financial products. TD may have a financial interest in the commodities discussed in this material, including, without limitation, a financial product that references such commodities.

Not An Offer or Solicitation: Nothing contained in this material is, or should be construed as, an offer, a solicitation of an offer or an invitation to buy or sell any commodity, or any financial product that references such commodity, and it is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to law.

Risk of Loss. Transactions in commodities, and financial instruments that reference commodities, involve risk of loss, and are subject to the risks of fluctuating prices. You should weigh potential benefits against the risks. Past performance is no indicator of future performance and the Materials are not intended to forecast or predict future events.

Jaret Seiberg

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Jaret Seiberg
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Jaret Seiberg is the financial services and housing policy analyst for TD Cowen Washington Research Group, which was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Before joining TD Cowen in August 2016, he served in similar roles at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Concept Capital and Stanford Financial Group. He began following financial policy in the early 1990s as a journalist covering efforts in Congress to complete the last of the laws from the savings and loan crisis. He tracked the merger wave of the 1990s and Glass-Steagall repeal in 1999 as the deputy Washington bureau chief for American Banker and as the Washington bureau chief for The Daily Deal. His bailiwick at TD Cowen includes issues related to commercial banks, housing, payments, investment banking, M&A, taxes, the CFPB, crypto currency, cannabis and Capitol Hill.

Mr. Seiberg has a BA from The American University and an MBA from the University of Maryland at College Park. He speaks regularly at industry events, is often quoted in the media, and appears on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Max Rakhlenko

Director, Consumer - Retail & Fitness Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Max Rakhlenko
Director, Consumer - Retail & Fitness Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Max Rakhlenko is a Director covering the Retail & Fitness sectors. Prior to joining TD Cowen in October 2016, Max Rakhlenko was an equity research associate at Macquarie Capital (USA) covering consumer retail companies. Mr. Rakhlenko received a BA in finance and economics from University of Missouri and is a CFA Charterholder. He has received press coverage from CNBC, TD Ameritrade, Forbes, Barron’s, Sourcing Journal, and others.

Greg Williams

Director, Equity Research, TD Cowen

Greg Williams
Director, Equity Research, TD Cowen

Biography

Prior to joining Cowen in 2012, Greg Williams worked in equity research for a top-ranked research team at JPMorgan and served as a senior analyst at Sidoti and Company. In addition, Mr. Williams has more than five years of telecom industry experience working in various corporate finance and strategy roles at AT&T. He received a BA degree with a double major in economics and computer applications from the University of Notre Dame and is a CFA charterholder.

Sean Steuart

Managing Director, Equity Research, TD Cowen

Sean Steuart
Managing Director, Equity Research, TD Cowen

Biography

Sean assumed the role of North American paper & forest products analyst in 2000 and has covered the Canadian renewable power sector since 2008. He now covers 14 equities across both sectors and has been consistently ranked as a TopGun analyst by Brendan Wood International, a global capital markets survey firm. Before joining TD Securities, Sean gathered extensive work experience at pulp and paper mills in Canada and the United States. Sean graduated from York University’s MBA program in 1998 and has an Honours Bachelor of Commerce degree from McMaster University. He is a CFA charterholder.