Feb. 12, 2025 - 2 minutes 30 seconds
Outside photo of The White House in Washington D.C.

Overview:

  • Trump is comfortable pushing competing policies. This "Chaos premium" setting increases his leverage and keeps him at the center of the global policy zeitgeist.
  • The debt ceiling and US$5 trillion+ tax cliff at year-end formulates the legislative agenda. Tariffs are the main policy lever, but rule changes take time.
  • There's opportunity for geopolitical reset, but DOGE could remain a risk for U.S. defense in the long term.
  • Trump may seek to dismantle the regulatory state constructed by the Biden administration while energy dominance and efforts to lead in Artificial Intelligence will animate the administration's approach.

The TD Cowen Insight

We suspect Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox pushing competing policies and people. The "Chaos premium" environment only increases his leverage in negotiations keeping him at the molten center of the global policy zeitgeist. Tariffs are the main policy lever, but rule changes take time.

Macro

We see seven policy priorities for the Trump administration:

  1. Deglobalization ("America First")
  2. Drill (energy dominance)
  3. Deregulation
  4. Deportation
  5. Deals (or tariffs)
  6. Debt... to finance tax extensions
  7. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)

How all these policies intersect and are sequenced largely determines the outcome. Reconciliation sequencing is critical for immigration, energy, tax and DOGE.

Geopolitics and Defense

Mideast, Ukraine, China and defense spending are crucial "first 100 day" topics. There is significant opportunity to reset geopolitics and clarify concerns about defense spending. The long-term issues are anxious allies, Taiwan uncertainty, Greenland, the Panama Canal and rebooting the Department of Defense (DoD). DOGE will remain the major risk for defense and U.S. government services companies until proven otherwise.

Financials and Housing

The first 100 days are about freezing financial rulemakings, especially those at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the selection and confirmation of regulators. Housing focus will be on using the tax bill as a vehicle for tax credits to encourage entry-level home construction. The crypto sector should expect less enforcement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as the agency awaits congressional action on the crypto market structure as soon as mid-2025.

Health Care

Republicans will not have much time to get settled as there are a myriad of issues left over from last year that need to be addressed early in the Trump administration. This includes extending the rare pediatric disease Priority Review Voucher (PRV) program, reauthorizing the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act and the SUPPORT Act.

Energy Transition

We anticipate President Trump may seek to dismantle the regulatory state constructed by the Biden administration, announce a trade emergency alongside rates and timelines for tariffs on targeted imports and achieve progress toward a reconciliation bill in Congress. Dual themes of energy dominance (framed around producing more energy) and winning the Artificial Intelligence (AI) war will animate the Trump administration's approach.

Technology, Media and Telecommunications

We expect Trump's tech regulators to start making waves through initial moves and congressional testimony. Thematically, his picks for top jobs are already complicating our bull thesis for technology, media and telecommunications policy from 2025-2029.

Full report originally published January 16, 2025

Subscribing clients can read the full report, All Gas, No Brakes: Trump First 100 Days & Key 2025 Themes - Ahead of the Curve, on the TD One Portal

The views or opinions expressed herein represent the personal views of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of TD Securities or its affiliates.

This material is intended to provide commentary on the market for commodities discussed herein.

Not Advice: The information contained in this material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation, or to create a fiduciary relationship. Neither TD Securities (USA) LLC (“TD Securities USA”) nor any of its affiliates (collectively, “TD”) makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, appropriateness or sufficiency for any purpose of any information included in this material. Certain information may have been provided by third-party sources and, while believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified by TD, and its accuracy or completeness acannot be guaranteed. You should not make an investment decision in reliance on this material, which is intended to provide only brief comments on the topics addressed, and is based on information that is likely to change without notice.

Not Securities or Derivatives Research: This material has not been produced, reviewed or approved by TD’s securities or derivatives research departments. The views of the author may differ from others at TD, including TD securities or derivatives research analysts.

Not Independent: The views expressed in this material may not be independent of the interests of TD. TD may engage in conflicting activities, including principal trading before or after posting this material, or other services involving commodities discussed in this material, or related financial products. TD may have a financial interest in the commodities discussed in this material, including, without limitation, a financial product that references such commodities.

Not An Offer or Solicitation: Nothing contained in this material is, or should be construed as, an offer, a solicitation of an offer or an invitation to buy or sell any commodity, or any financial product that references such commodity, and it is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to law.

Risk of Loss. Transactions in commodities, and financial instruments that reference commodities, involve risk of loss, and are subject to the risks of fluctuating prices. You should weigh potential benefits against the risks. Past performance is no indicator of future performance and the Materials are not intended to forecast or predict future events.


Portrait of Paul Gallant

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Technology, Media & Telecom Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Paul Gallant


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Technology, Media & Telecom Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Paul Gallant


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Technology, Media & Telecom Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Paul Gallant is TD Cowen’s TMT Policy Analyst based in Washington. For 15+ years he has advised institutional investors on TMT political matters as part of the recently #1 II-ranked Washington Research Group. The Washington Research Group has been consistently ranked in the annual Institutional Investor survey. Before becoming an analyst, Paul served as Legal Advisor to the Chairman of the FCC and as Senior Counsel at Qwest Communications.

He received a bachelor’s degree from Georgetown University and a law degree from Catholic University.
Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Portrait of Chris Krueger

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Chris Krueger


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Chris Krueger


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Chris Krueger joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 as the Washington Strategist. Mr. Krueger and the TD Cowen Washington Research Group were recently named #2 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category, where he had been consistently ranked for the past decade along with WRG. Mr. Krueger publishes the DC Download, a must-read daily for Wall Street portfolio managers who want a quick look at the top Washington stories and their impact on the capital markets. Mr. Krueger covers DC macro, fiscal, tax and trade policy.

He held similar positions at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Concept Capital, and Potomac Research Group. Earlier he worked for nearly four years on the senior staff of the House of Representatives. He has also worked on several local, state, and federal political campaigns across the country.

Mr. Krueger holds a BA from the University of Vermont and an MA in international relations from King’s College London. He appears frequently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is widely quoted in The Wall Street Journal, FT, Axios, New York Times, Washington Post, and POLITICO. He also speaks regularly at industry events and conferences, including the Milken Institute Global Conference, National Organization of Investment Professionals, and the New York Stock Exchange.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Portrait of John Miller

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - ESG and Sustainability Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of John Miller


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - ESG and Sustainability Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of John Miller


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - ESG and Sustainability Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

John Miller joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in September 2021 and covers ESG and sustainability policy. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Mr. Miller previously served as a vice president and senior ESG research analyst at Calvert Research and Management, part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, where he developed and built a quantitative, company-level ESG risk/reward assessment framework targeted towards the global energy and utility sectors. Mr. Miller supported the index development and security selection process for Calvert’s Global Energy Solutions Fund and Global Water Fund. Mr. Miller also worked at the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) as branch chief in the Office of Enforcement, Division of Analytics and Surveillance. Earlier, he served as Technical and Policy Advisor to a FERC commissioner and as an energy analyst in FERC’s Office of Enforcement.

Mr. Miller holds a B.A. in economic history and political science from The George Washington University, and a Master’s in global history from The London School of Economics and Political Science, where he focused on developmental economics. John also holds the Fundamentals of Sustainability Accounting certification, which is granted by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB).

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Portrait of Roman Schweizer

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Aerospace & Defense Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Roman Schweizer


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Aerospace & Defense Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Roman Schweizer


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Aerospace & Defense Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Roman Schweizer joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 covering defense policy issues. He held previous positions at Guggenheim Securities and MF Global. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Mr. Schweizer has over 15 years of experience in Washington, DC, serving as a government acquisition official, industry consultant, and journalist.

Prior to joining Washington Research Group, he was an acquisition professional with the U.S. Navy’s littoral combat ship program. Previously, he directed a team providing congressional and media strategic communications support to senior Navy officials on high-profile ship acquisition programs. Mr. Schweizer has also consulted on U.S. and international defense, aerospace, homeland security, and technology market sectors to Fortune 100 clients on behalf of DFI International and Fathom Dynamics LLC.
He has been published in Inside the Navy, Inside the Pentagon, Armed Forces Journal, Defense News, ISR Journals, Training and Simulation Journal, the Naval Institute’s Proceedings, and the Navy League’s Seapower.

Mr. Schweizer earned a bachelor’s degree in history from American University in Washington, DC.
Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Portrait of Jaret Seiberg

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Jaret Seiberg


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Jaret Seiberg


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Jaret Seiberg is the financial services and housing policy analyst for TD Cowen Washington Research Group, which was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Before joining TD Cowen in August 2016, he served in similar roles at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Concept Capital and Stanford Financial Group. He began following financial policy in the early 1990s as a journalist covering efforts in Congress to complete the last of the laws from the savings and loan crisis. He tracked the merger wave of the 1990s and Glass-Steagall repeal in 1999 as the deputy Washington bureau chief for American Banker and as the Washington bureau chief for The Daily Deal. His bailiwick at TD Cowen includes issues related to commercial banks, housing, payments, investment banking, M&A, taxes, the CFPB, crypto currency, cannabis and Capitol Hill.

Mr. Seiberg has a BA from The American University and an MBA from the University of Maryland at College Park. He speaks regularly at industry events, is often quoted in the media, and appears on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Portrait of Rick Weissenstein

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Health Care Services & Pharmaceutical Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Rick Weissenstein


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Health Care Services & Pharmaceutical Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Portrait of Rick Weissenstein


Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Health Care Services & Pharmaceutical Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Rick Weissenstein joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 and covers health care services policy issues. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Stanford Financial, and Schwab Soundview, where he was responsible for analyzing health care policy issues and emerging trends in the federal and state legislative, regulatory, and legal arenas and their implications for the health care industry.

He was formerly the Washington Bureau Chief for Modern Healthcare magazine, and a reporter for Advertising Age magazine. Mr. Weissenstein began his career as a Certified Public Accountant in the Chicago office of Ernst & Young. He earned a bachelor’s degree in accounting at Millikin University, and a master’s degree in journalism at the University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.