Politics & Policy

All Gas, No Brakes

By: Paul Gallant, Chris Krueger, John Miller, Roman Schweizer, Jaret Seiberg, Rick Weissenstein

Feb. 12, 2025 - 2 minutes 30 seconds

Outside photo of The White House in Washington D.C.

Overview:

Trump is comfortable pushing competing policies. This "Chaos premium" setting increases his leverage and keeps him at the center of the global policy zeitgeist.
The debt ceiling and US$5 trillion+ tax cliff at year-end formulates the legislative agenda. Tariffs are the main policy lever, but rule changes take time.
There's opportunity for geopolitical reset, but DOGE could remain a risk for U.S. defense in the long term.
Trump may seek to dismantle the regulatory state constructed by the Biden administration while energy dominance and efforts to lead in Artificial Intelligence will animate the administration's approach.

The TD Cowen Insight

We suspect Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox pushing competing policies and people. The "Chaos premium" environment only increases his leverage in negotiations keeping him at the molten center of the global policy zeitgeist. Tariffs are the main policy lever, but rule changes take time.

Macro

We see seven policy priorities for the Trump administration:

Deglobalization ("America First")
Drill (energy dominance)
Deregulation
Deportation
Deals (or tariffs)
Debt... to finance tax extensions
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)

How all these policies intersect and are sequenced largely determines the outcome. Reconciliation sequencing is critical for immigration, energy, tax and DOGE.

Geopolitics and Defense

Mideast, Ukraine, China and defense spending are crucial "first 100 day" topics. There is significant opportunity to reset geopolitics and clarify concerns about defense spending. The long-term issues are anxious allies, Taiwan uncertainty, Greenland, the Panama Canal and rebooting the Department of Defense (DoD). DOGE will remain the major risk for defense and U.S. government services companies until proven otherwise.

Financials and Housing

The first 100 days are about freezing financial rulemakings, especially those at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the selection and confirmation of regulators. Housing focus will be on using the tax bill as a vehicle for tax credits to encourage entry-level home construction. The crypto sector should expect less enforcement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as the agency awaits congressional action on the crypto market structure as soon as mid-2025.

Health Care

Republicans will not have much time to get settled as there are a myriad of issues left over from last year that need to be addressed early in the Trump administration. This includes extending the rare pediatric disease Priority Review Voucher (PRV) program, reauthorizing the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act and the SUPPORT Act.

Energy Transition

We anticipate President Trump may seek to dismantle the regulatory state constructed by the Biden administration, announce a trade emergency alongside rates and timelines for tariffs on targeted imports and achieve progress toward a reconciliation bill in Congress. Dual themes of energy dominance (framed around producing more energy) and winning the Artificial Intelligence (AI) war will animate the Trump administration's approach.

Technology, Media and Telecommunications

We expect Trump's tech regulators to start making waves through initial moves and congressional testimony. Thematically, his picks for top jobs are already complicating our bull thesis for technology, media and telecommunications policy from 2025-2029.

Full report originally published January 16, 2025

Subscribing clients can read the full report, All Gas, No Brakes: Trump First 100 Days & Key 2025 Themes - Ahead of the Curve, on the TD One Portal

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Paul Gallant

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Technology, Media & Telecom Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Paul Gallant
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Technology, Media & Telecom Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Paul Gallant is TD Cowen’s TMT Policy Analyst based in Washington. For 15+ years he has advised institutional investors on TMT political matters as part of the recently #1 II-ranked Washington Research Group. The Washington Research Group has been consistently ranked in the annual Institutional Investor survey. Before becoming an analyst, Paul served as Legal Advisor to the Chairman of the FCC and as Senior Counsel at Qwest Communications.

He received a bachelor’s degree from Georgetown University and a law degree from Catholic University.
Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Chris Krueger

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Chris Krueger
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Chris Krueger joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 as the Washington Strategist. Mr. Krueger and the TD Cowen Washington Research Group were recently named #2 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category, where he had been consistently ranked for the past decade along with WRG. Mr. Krueger publishes the DC Download, a must-read daily for Wall Street portfolio managers who want a quick look at the top Washington stories and their impact on the capital markets. Mr. Krueger covers DC macro, fiscal, tax and trade policy.

He held similar positions at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Concept Capital, and Potomac Research Group. Earlier he worked for nearly four years on the senior staff of the House of Representatives. He has also worked on several local, state, and federal political campaigns across the country.

Mr. Krueger holds a BA from the University of Vermont and an MA in international relations from King’s College London. He appears frequently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is widely quoted in The Wall Street Journal, FT, Axios, New York Times, Washington Post, and POLITICO. He also speaks regularly at industry events and conferences, including the Milken Institute Global Conference, National Organization of Investment Professionals, and the New York Stock Exchange.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

John Miller

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - ESG and Sustainability Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

John Miller
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - ESG and Sustainability Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

John Miller joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in September 2021 and covers ESG and sustainability policy. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Mr. Miller previously served as a vice president and senior ESG research analyst at Calvert Research and Management, part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, where he developed and built a quantitative, company-level ESG risk/reward assessment framework targeted towards the global energy and utility sectors. Mr. Miller supported the index development and security selection process for Calvert’s Global Energy Solutions Fund and Global Water Fund. Mr. Miller also worked at the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) as branch chief in the Office of Enforcement, Division of Analytics and Surveillance. Earlier, he served as Technical and Policy Advisor to a FERC commissioner and as an energy analyst in FERC’s Office of Enforcement.

Mr. Miller holds a B.A. in economic history and political science from The George Washington University, and a Master’s in global history from The London School of Economics and Political Science, where he focused on developmental economics. John also holds the Fundamentals of Sustainability Accounting certification, which is granted by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB).

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Roman Schweizer

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Aerospace & Defense Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Roman Schweizer
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Aerospace & Defense Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Roman Schweizer joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 covering defense policy issues. He held previous positions at Guggenheim Securities and MF Global. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Mr. Schweizer has over 15 years of experience in Washington, DC, serving as a government acquisition official, industry consultant, and journalist.

Prior to joining Washington Research Group, he was an acquisition professional with the U.S. Navy’s littoral combat ship program. Previously, he directed a team providing congressional and media strategic communications support to senior Navy officials on high-profile ship acquisition programs. Mr. Schweizer has also consulted on U.S. and international defense, aerospace, homeland security, and technology market sectors to Fortune 100 clients on behalf of DFI International and Fathom Dynamics LLC.
He has been published in Inside the Navy, Inside the Pentagon, Armed Forces Journal, Defense News, ISR Journals, Training and Simulation Journal, the Naval Institute’s Proceedings, and the Navy League’s Seapower.

Mr. Schweizer earned a bachelor’s degree in history from American University in Washington, DC.
Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Jaret Seiberg

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Jaret Seiberg
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Financial Services Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Jaret Seiberg is the financial services and housing policy analyst for TD Cowen Washington Research Group, which was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Before joining TD Cowen in August 2016, he served in similar roles at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Concept Capital and Stanford Financial Group. He began following financial policy in the early 1990s as a journalist covering efforts in Congress to complete the last of the laws from the savings and loan crisis. He tracked the merger wave of the 1990s and Glass-Steagall repeal in 1999 as the deputy Washington bureau chief for American Banker and as the Washington bureau chief for The Daily Deal. His bailiwick at TD Cowen includes issues related to commercial banks, housing, payments, investment banking, M&A, taxes, the CFPB, crypto currency, cannabis and Capitol Hill.

Mr. Seiberg has a BA from The American University and an MBA from the University of Maryland at College Park. He speaks regularly at industry events, is often quoted in the media, and appears on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.

Rick Weissenstein

Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Health Care Services & Pharmaceutical Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Rick Weissenstein
Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Health Care Services & Pharmaceutical Policy Analyst, TD Cowen

Biography

Rick Weissenstein joined TD Cowen Washington Research Group in August 2016 and covers health care services policy issues. TD Cowen Washington Research Group was recently named #1 in the Institutional Investor Washington Strategy category. The team has been consistently ranked among the top macro policy teams for the past decade. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at Guggenheim Securities, MF Global, Stanford Financial, and Schwab Soundview, where he was responsible for analyzing health care policy issues and emerging trends in the federal and state legislative, regulatory, and legal arenas and their implications for the health care industry.

He was formerly the Washington Bureau Chief for Modern Healthcare magazine, and a reporter for Advertising Age magazine. Mr. Weissenstein began his career as a Certified Public Accountant in the Chicago office of Ernst & Young. He earned a bachelor’s degree in accounting at Millikin University, and a master’s degree in journalism at the University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana.

Material prepared by the TD Cowen Washington Research Group is intended as commentary on political, economic, or market conditions and is not intended as a research report as defined by applicable regulation.