Markets
Global Strategy Outlook 2022: The year of living dangerously
If, in this period of peak disruptions to supply chains and pressure on energy and food markets, this is close to the highest we can muster on inflation, it seems a low risk for us to see sustained price pressures.
As our macro team delves into the inflation uncertainty risks, almost 2.5pp of the 4% y/y inflation in the Eurozone right now is energy and base effects from German tax cuts and around three-quarters of the upside in headline inflation in the U.S. is from disruptions in energy and motor vehicles.
This too shall pass.
Gain deeper insights from our Rates, FX and Commodities strategists by listening to their quick views from our Global Strategy Outlook1 report.
Head of Global Strategy, TD Securities
Head of Global Strategy, TD Securities
Head of Global Strategy, TD Securities
December 14, 2021
Global Rates Quick View
2021 was a year of twists and turns. From a U.S. fiscal stimulus led rise in rates in the first quarter; a global decline in rates in the second and third quarters due to the surge of the Delta variant, to a fairly global higher rate move in the fourth quarter, inflation readings came in higher and more persistent. We think 2022 will be a function of the unwinding of central bank accommodation. Find out more.
Global Head of Rates Strategy, TD Securities
Global Head of Rates Strategy, TD Securities
Global Head of Rates Strategy, TD Securities
December 14, 2021
FX Quick View
For the broader FX market in general, we think that investors should expect a diverse set of drivers ranging from divergences across growth, central banks, terms of trade, and valuations. We called these guys the growers, the hikers, the miners, and the discounters. Find out more.
Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities
Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities
Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities
December 14, 2021
Commodities Quick View
We discuss how the changing global consumption patterns, economic growth moderation, and supply trends normalization will knock commodity prices off their highs in 2022. We also address how ongoing energy problems in Asia and Europe over the winter OPEC+ discipline will prevent an outright rout in commodity prices. Find out more.
Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy, TD Securities
Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy, TD Securities
Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy, TD Securities
Existing clients can read the full report on our Market Alpha Portal
1 Source: TD Securities Global Outlook 2022 Report published on November 16, 2021.