Technologie

Data Centers Part III: The Rebirth of U.S. Semi Manufacturing – The Drive to Thrive

By: Krish Sankar, Matthew D. Ramsay, Joshua Buchalter CFA, Eddy Orabi, Steven Chin

juill. 10, 2024 - 2 minutes

A technician in a clean room suit looking closely at a semiconductor.

The TD Cowen Insight

Our supply model indicates that the U.S. potentially has enough capacity to meet domestic demand for leading-edge chips by the end of the decade, but higher operating costs and talent scarcity are some challenges. Semicaps are key beneficiaries from the cumulative USD 40 billion in Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) required to reach that goal.

Our Thesis:

The move to rebuild the semiconductor ecosystem in the U.S. comes amid the rising importance of leading-edge semis from both a strategic and economic standpoint. While there are some challenges, based on our proprietary U.S. wafer capacity model along with our forecast for U.S. domestic needs, we believe the U.S. should have enough capacity to meet its domestic demand for leading-edge semis by the end of the decade. However, capacity availability is only one factor of what is required to achieve actual adequacy in leading-edge chips. Other factors that we discuss in this report include wafer pricing, fabrication economics, talent availability, labor turnover and availability of packaging facilities. The intent here is not to arrive at a conclusion whether the U.S. endeavor will succeed in its efforts or not, but rather to help investors better understand what is required for the U.S. to reach a level of adequacy in leading-edge chips.

What Is Proprietary:

We developed a proprietary supply-demand analysis and a fabrication construction framework. We then applied it to a leading semiconductor manufacturing company to better understand the economics between operating a fabrication in the U.S. versus Taiwan and identify opportunities to improve chip costs longer-term. Our wafer supply and demand model for U.S. leading-edge chip consumption offers additional granularity on when and how much the U.S. needs to spend to achieve supply adequacy.

What To Watch:

Production ramp for U.S. fabrications later in 2024 and into 2025, and the equipment facilitation in the 2026-27 timeframe, can provide a gauge for U.S. progress on reaching wafer supply goals.
Approximately 75% of grants under the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) Act are already awarded, but these awards are non-binding. The amount and timely distribution of these funds are critical.
Potential CHIPS Act 2.0 program for fabrications beyond 2030 could be a catalyst for semicap stocks.
Announcements for new capacity and spending by outsourced semis assembly and test (OSATs) for back-end packaging and testing that complement front-end foundries reflects the level of interest from end customers in making chips in the U.S.

Subscribing clients can read the full report, The Next Datacenter Decade, Driven By Acceleration & GenAI - Ahead Of The Curve, on the TD One Portal

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Krish Sankar

Directeur général, TMT – Analyste de recherche en matériel technologie des TI et en biens d’équipement pour semi-conducteurs, TD Cowen

Krish Sankar
Directeur général, TMT – Analyste de recherche en matériel technologie des TI et en biens d’équipement pour semi-conducteurs, TD Cowen

Biographie

Krish Sankar est directeur général et analyste de recherche principal des biens d’équipement pour semi-conducteurs et du matériel technologique des TI. Il s’est joint à l’équipe Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications de TD Cowen en février 2018. Avant de se joindre à TD Cowen, M. Sankar a travaillé comme analyste de premier plan à la Bank of America Merrill Lynch pendant près de 14 ans, où il s’est occupé des secteurs des biens d’équipement pour semi-conducteurs, des logiciels d’automatisation de conception de circuits électroniques et des énergies de rechange. Avant de se joindre à la Bank of America Merrill Lynch, M. Sankar était directeur de produits à Applied Materials. M. Sankar est classé parmi les meilleurs analystes de biens d’équipement pour semi-conducteurs dans les sondages auprès d’Institutional Investor.

M. Sankar est titulaire d’un baccalauréat en technologie (avec distinction) en génie de la céramique de l’IIT (BHU), à Varanasi, et d’une maîtrise ès sciences de la science des matériaux et en ingénierie de l’Université du Minnesota.

Matthew D. Ramsay

Directeur général et analyste de recherche, Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications et Semiconducteurs, TD Cowen

Matthew D. Ramsay
Directeur général et analyste de recherche, Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications et Semiconducteurs, TD Cowen

Biographie

Matthew est directeur général et analyste de recherche principal chargé du secteur des semiconducteurs. Avant de se joindre à TD Cowen, il a travaillé comme analyste chez Canaccord Genuity, où il était également chargé des actions du secteur des semiconducteurs. Auparavant, il a été ingénieur concepteur principal chez AMD et a occupé des postes de direction d’ingénierie du rendement chez Sun Microsystems et Spansion.

Matthew est titulaire d’un baccalauréat en génie informatique de l’Université d’Evansville, où il était un athlète de soccer masculin de la division I de la NCAA. Il est titulaire d’une maîtrise en génie électrique et en architecture informatique de l’Université du Wisconsin et d’une maîtrise en administration des affaires de la Kelly School of Business de l’Université de l’Indiana.

Joshua Buchalter, CFA

Directeur général et analyste de recherche, Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications et Semiconducteurs, TD Cowen

Joshua Buchalter, CFA
Directeur général et analyste de recherche, Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications et Semiconducteurs, TD Cowen

Biographie

Joshua est administrateur responsable des secteurs des semiconducteurs et des technologies de mobilité. Il travaille au sein de l’équipe Semiconducteurs de TD Cowen depuis 2018.

Avant de se joindre à TD Cowen, Joshua a travaillé dans le secteur des semiconducteurs à titre d’associé de recherche sur les actions chez Oppenheimer & Co et Needham & Co.

Joshua est titulaire d’un baccalauréat en économie de l’Université Tufts et d’une maîtrise en administration des affaires – finance et comptabilité du Boston College. Il détient le titre de CFA.