The Long Road to the U.S. Election Nears an End – Or Does It?
Guests: Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities and Chris Krueger, Managing Director, Washington Research Group - Macro, Trade, Fiscal & Tax Policy, TD Cowen
Host: Peter Haynes, Managing Director and Head of Index and Market Structure Research, TD Securities
In Episode 57, Frank invites Chris Krueger, Washington politics expert with TD Cowen, to the podcast to discuss the upcoming November 5th U.S. Election and key factors that will determine who wins the Presidential race. Frank explains the importance of the election outcome to Canada, noting that if Trump is true to his word, then a Republican victory would lead to a weakening (if not outright end) of multilateralism globally. While the USMCA might survive, the threat of unilateral tariffs will overhang Canada-U.S. relations for the duration of the next Administration.
We discuss down ballet Congressional votes, which according to both Frank and Chris are likely to lead to a split Congress. Chris also weighs in on the risk of outlier events disrupting the peaceful transition of power. We wrap up with Frank's take on the Federal Liberal Caucus revolt, and the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau stays on through the next election in Canada, especially considering incumbent defeats in provincial elections from coast to coast.
| Chapters: | |
|---|---|
| 00:55 | Is the U.S. Election the Most Consequential in History? |
| 02:11 | Key Variables that Will Decide the Outcome |
| 08:58 | USMCA – Threat of Unilateral Sanctions from a Trump Administration |
| 14:07 | Will the Prime Minister Push Biden to Resolve Softwood Lumber Dispute? |
| 16:50 | Risk of Outlier Events Disrupting Peaceful Transition of Power |
| 27:02 | Trump Tax Breaks and Debt Ceiling |
| 33:19 | Placing Bets on the Winner |
| 36:28 | Liberal Caucus Revolt and Likelihood Trudeau Stays on Through Next Election |
This podcast was recorded on October 23, 2024.
Full transcript to come.
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste en macroéconomie, commerce, fiscalité et politique fiscale, TD Cowen
Directeur général, Groupe de recherche de Washington – Analyste en macroéconomie, commerce, fiscalité et politique fiscale, TD Cowen
Président suppléant, Valeurs Mobilières TD
Président suppléant, Valeurs Mobilières TD
