The Golden Generation of Home Improvement
By: Max Rakhlenko, Bradley Jamison, Jaret Seiberg, Chris Krueger, John Miller
oct. 21, 2024 - 4 minutesOverview:
- We view the sector's current downturn as a pause with 2025 being a transition year to a strong 2026.
- The near-term catalyst is rate cuts, which should boost both the DIY and professional sectors.
- Longer-term, we see multiple trends including rising home prices driving investment in owned properties.
The TD Cowen Insight
We are constructive on the Home Improvement sector as we enter the next cycle. The industry is poised for strong professional sector led growth driven by four key secular tailwinds. We view 2025 as a transition year and are bullish for growth to accelerate led by the professional sector, with potential upside.
Healthy Long-Term Fundamentals for Home Improvement
In our full report, we lay out a framework for investors to assess the path and magnitude a home improvement sector recovery could follow. We also identify the key near- and longer-term drivers of what we expect to be a strong cycle. We are bullish on a home improvement recovery, which we think will start slow before strengthening as homeowner and housing fundamentals improve. The industry has very healthy long-term fundamentals, and we view the current downturn as a pause during what could become a "golden generation".
The Near Term, A Golden Generation
In the near-term, the industry could remain pressured over the next several quarters driven by a pullback in category spend. We think the cycle will turn gradually with 2025 as a transition year prior to a strong 2026. The key near-term catalyst is interest rate cuts, which should strengthen the DIY sector and help unlock bigger professional sector projects as balance sheets and homeowner confidence rebound. Rate cuts should also improve housing affordability and help unfreeze existing home sales, especially given significant pent-up demand to move. However, this could take longer and provide a more secondary tailwind.
The Longer Term, Four Secular Trends
We are bullish on four secular trends that should fuel home improvement spend:
- Aging housing stock.
- Favorable demographics centered on millennial homeownership and older homeowners aging in place.
- New home shortage driving home price appreciation and investments in home improvements.
- Record home equity available for extraction which can fund home improvement.
We think these trends are underappreciated, will build over time and position the industry for strong growth over the next cycle. Embedded within these trends is an ongoing shift toward the professional channel and away from DIY.
Meanwhile, the biggest potential risks we monitor are the employment framework that has supported demand, along with housing affordability and the drivers of the supply and demand imbalance, which may persist. Longer-term, we view the skilled labor shortage as potentially a semi-structural headwind that could slow professional sector growth and drive inflationary pressure.
Subscribing clients can read the full report, The Golden Generation Of Home Improvement - Ahead Of The Curve Series, on the TD One Portal