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Chris Krueger:
Good morning. Welcome back to TD Cowen Street Cred. I am Chris Krueger with TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, and we'll attempt to translate K Street to Wall Street faster than a speeding Acela and even faster if you juice up the playback. We are now three for three on Tuesday mornings, which Coach Lou Brown would call a winning streak. So with five weeks until the election hopefully ends, wanted to flag three areas we are watching.
Number one, the VP debate. Number two, the all-important ground game. And number three, Nikki Haley primary voters. It is still 2024, so expect the unexpected. Okay, number one, the VP debate is Tuesday, October 1st. That is this evening from 9:00 to 10:30. P.M. Republican nominee JD Vance and Democratic nominee Tim Walz hold their first and only debate. It's on CBS, and it runs from 9:00 to 10 30. P.M.
You've got two co-hosts or co-moderators, CBS' Evening News host Norah O'Donnell and Face the Nation host Margaret Brennan. Look, in terms of moving the needle, we'd be very surprised if you go back and look at really the last 30 years of VP debates, the one that really stands out was when Lloyd Bentsen really hammered Dan Quayle in 1998. At the end of the day, the Bush-Quayle ticket won with over 400 electoral votes.
So questions as to whether this debate will really move the needle. In terms of events that still could move the needle, sadly, the hurricane that swept through Florida and the Southeast, as well as the potential port strike, which could be occurring right now. You've got East and Gulf Coast dock workers striking at 14 points from Boston to Houston, and that accounts for more than half of all container goods shipped in and out of the US.
We'll see how those two events impact 2024. They both probably will, unfortunately, be more impactful than the VP debate. Okay, number two, the ground game, blocking and tackling. This is the Get Out The Vote, GOTV. It's really one of the most important components of the final weeks of a campaign. The Harris-Trump campaigns have really different strategies and tactics on this.
The Harris campaign is basically relying on the tried and true Democratic approach on this, which really relies on organized labor and the unions. The Trump campaign trying something relatively unique, really leaning in on Super PACs. So when you think about the VP debate tonight, what really makes Tim Walz unique as a VP nominee? Well, among other things, he's a card-carrying member of one of the most powerful political organization in the United States.
That's the teachers' union. For all the focus on the building trade unions, the more blue-collar unions, the hardhats, the real political and organizing power within organized labor remains the service sector unions, teachers, AFSCME, the SEIU, et cetera. And that service sector unions, they're really the straw that stirs the Democratic drink on Get Out The Vote, and they're a seasoned and powerful group of operatives.
Now, contrast that, the Trump campaign's Get Out The Vote efforts, their field operation, it's really had to recalibrate, given the dramatic change following Biden dropping from the race. It's an entirely different campaign with a largely... The geography has really changed as well. The Republican National Committee has spent a lot of its resources on "election integrity initiatives" for election day and beyond.
So a lot of the RNC dollars are focused on poll watchers on election day as opposed to knocking on doors before election day. And then in terms of the Get Out The Vote operation on election day, a lot of this has been outsourced to the Save America Super PAC that's been funded by Elon Musk and others. Two other things to flag here. Trump's got really mixed messaging around early vote, and that contrasts with a big Democratic push on this.
Recall that over 100 million ballots were cast early in 2020, and then you also have the real gap in fundraising. The Democratic National Committee raised $257 million last month. The Republican National Committee only raised $85 million last month. Finally, number three, the Haley voters. I feel like this hasn't been discussed too much since Biden dropped out.
The big narrative before Biden dropped out or one of the big narratives was what's called the double haters. Prior to Biden dropping out, a quarter of voters held an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump. This was the highest share of double haters in the last 10 elections. Nothing even really came close with the possible exception of 2016 with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
The narrative of double haters has been flipped with the new race dynamics, the assassination attempts, et cetera. But a key cohort of this group in our mind remains the Nikki Haley primary voters if you focus on actual votes cast as opposed to polls. We were thinking more about this because you've had a number of high profile Republicans endorsing Harris and think this is still a key metric to watch.
Keep in mind, some of these Haley voters were voting after Haley had already dropped out. The two that really stand out are in Michigan and in Pennsylvania. Michigan is a state that Biden won in 2020 by 150,000 votes. Nikki Haley got almost 300,000 primary voters in 2024, got more than a quarter of all Republican votes. Pennsylvania, a state Biden won by about 80,000 votes in 2020, Haley got almost 160,000 registered Republican votes.
So something to keep an eye on. Trump really has not just reached out to this group, it's more that he's gone out of his way to alienate this voting bloc, specifically looking at the attacks on Republican Governor Brian Kemp and his wife. Look, we're in a political environment where Dick Cheney and Bernie Sanders have endorsed the same presidential ticket such as 2024, but those are three areas we wanted to flag. All right, it's still 2024, so expect the unexpected. That's a wrap. This has been Chris Krueger with TD Cowen's Washington Research Group for Street Cred.
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